Methodology & Sources
Transparency panel — how the numbers are made
Simulation Method
Every indicator receives an evidence-derived base intensity score (0–100) assembled from the sources below. A Monte Carlo run then draws 10,000 observations per indicator from a Gaussian distribution centered on that base score (σ = 4). An observation above the threshold of 70 counts the indicator as "observable" in that iteration. The reported percentage is the share of iterations in which the indicator was observable — a measure of how consistently the evidence supports the presence of the trait, not a probability of any specific future event. Severity zones (Low <40, Moderate 40–70, High 70–90, Extreme 90–100) classify the resulting rates.
Limitations: base scores encode analytical judgment about qualitative evidence; the simulation quantifies consistency, not causation or prediction. Stage and trait definitions follow their original authors. This platform is an activist research tool grounded in global human rights standards — it is not a substitute for the primary reporting of the organizations cited.
Analytical Frameworks
Ur-Fascism — Umberto Eco (14 Features)
Umberto Eco, "Ur-Fascism" (1995)
BITE Model — Steven Hassan (Authoritarian Control)
Steven Hassan, BITE Model of Authoritarian Control
Pillars of Fascist Politics — Jason Stanley
Jason Stanley, "How Fascism Works" (2018)
Democratic Backsliding — V-Dem / International IDEA
V-Dem Institute Liberal Democracy Index; International IDEA
10 Stages of Genocide — Gregory Stanton
Gregory Stanton, Genocide Watch, "The Ten Stages of Genocide"
Data & Evidence Sources
WEXMAC TITUS Contract
A multi-billion dollar DoD/Navy worldwide expeditionary multiple-award contract (Territorial Integrity of the U.S.) covering lodging and logistics under Defense Support of Civil Authorities, flagged by lawmakers for use in domestic detention contracting. Used here as primary evidence for the militarization of civil functions.
Oneonta, AL — Blount County Jail Remodeling
County jail expansion housing federal (USMS/ICE) detainees, contextualized as part of the buildout of federal detention capacity through local carceral infrastructure.
DSCA Directives
Defense Support of Civil Authorities framework enabling deployment of military resources for domestic civil functions, including detention and logistics support.
V-Dem Institute (2026)
Liberal Democracy Index and component indicators: judicial independence, media freedom, civil liberties, executive aggrandizement, electoral integrity, and polarization.
Amnesty International (2026)
Human rights reporting on detention conditions, due process erosion, deaths in custody, and treatment of migrants and marginalized communities in the United States.
Lemkin Institute Red Flag Alerts
Statements and red flag alerts concerning genocidal rhetoric and patterns targeting the trans community and immigrants in the United States.
Constitutional Reference
This is a compact reference, not legal advice and not an automatic finding that any person or policy is unconstitutional. The primary texts remain the controlling sources; Dataforus uses them as context when discussing civil liberties, executive power, due process, equal protection, and democratic accountability.
Frequently relevant provisions: First Amendment · Fourth Amendment · Fifth Amendment · Eighth Amendment · Fourteenth Amendment · separation of powers · impeachment clauses.
About Dataforus
Dataforus is an independent, standalone research platform. It aggregates established academic frameworks with documented public evidence and global — not solely Western — human rights reporting to make democratic backsliding and genocide risk legible at a glance. The design is deliberately Brutalist: raw form, no ornament, because the data should not be softened.
Nova River Kain
they/them · politician-to-be · political activist · independent journalist
Dataforus was created and is maintained by Nova River Kain — founder and head anchor of an independent news channel, author of five Article 15 communications to the International Criminal Court, and the researcher behind the simulations published on this site. Nova built this platform on a simple premise: democratic backsliding should be measured, documented, and made impossible to ignore.
The source collection, paper, simulations, evidence weighting, and filings on this site are Nova's work. The source material was manually collected; Dataforus uses computational analysis to organize and model it, with human editorial review and source citations.
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