DATAFORUS

U.S. Democratic Backsliding & Genocide Risk Analysis

Genocide Risk Assessment

Stanton's 10 Stages of Genocide — 10,000 iterations · evidence-weighted 2026 U.S. data

Click a framework to isolate it — X axis: % of 10,000 iterations where the indicator was observable

LOWMODERATEHIGHEXTREME0%40%70%90%100%OBSERVABILITY RATE (% OF 10,000 SIMULATIONS)1. Classification100%2. Symbolization100%3. Discrimination100%4. Dehumanization100%5. Organization100%6. Polarization100%7. Preparation100%8. Persecution99.99%9. Extermination0%10. Denial97.9%

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10 data points shown

Reading This Chart

Gregory Stanton's model treats genocide as a process, not an event: the ten stages are predictable but not inexorable, and earlier stages enable later ones. This simulation scores each stage against documented 2026 U.S. evidence — mass detention logistics under the WEXMAC TITUS vehicle, county jail federalization such as Oneonta, AL, Lemkin Institute red flag alerts, and human rights reporting from Amnesty International and V-Dem. Stages 1 through 8 register in the Extreme zone; Stage 9 (Extermination) is not present as systematic killing, which the model reports honestly at 0% — while noting documented deaths in custody as warning signs, not equivalence.