DATAFORUS

U.S. Democratic Backsliding & Genocide Risk Analysis

U.S. Fascism & Democratic Backsliding

10,000-iteration Monte Carlo — 33 indicators · 4 frameworks · updated October 10, 2026

Click a framework to isolate it — X axis: % of 10,000 iterations where the indicator was observable

LOWMODERATEHIGHEXTREME0%40%70%90%100%OBSERVABILITY RATE (% OF 10,000 SIMULATIONS)Cult of Tradition99.99%Rejection of Modernism10.36%Cult of Action89.63%Disagreement is Treason99.31%Fear of Difference100%Appeal to Social Frustration100%Obsession with a Plot100%Enemy is Strong/Weak100%Life for Struggle50.48%Contempt for the Weak97.64%Heroism is Norm99.9%Machismo/Weaponry99.99%Selective Populism100%Newspeak99.34%Behavior Control0.56%Information Control99.99%Thought Control89.71%Emotional Control99.87%Mythic Past100%Propaganda100%Anti-Intellectualism100%Unreality100%Hierarchy99.99%Victimhood100%Law and Order100%Sexual Anxiety100%Sodom and Gomorrah100%Judicial Independence Erosion99.85%Media Freedom Decline99.2%Civil Liberties Restriction89.36%Executive Aggrandizement100%Election Integrity Issues100%Social Polarization100%

Hover a dot for framework, severity, and evidence detail

33 data points shown

Dated model update · October 10, 2026

What changed — and what did not

Media freedom decline · 97.65% → 99.20%

The FCC adopted a rule replacing the national broadcast-ownership cap with case-by-case review. Skydance then completed its Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition, putting CBS and CNN under the same ownership group. Associated Press describes the Ellison family's close relationship with President Trump and reports the creation of an editorial-independence board, while noting that company leadership will appoint its members. This score change measures the documented increase in concentration and editorial-independence risk. It is not a claim that CBS or CNN are directed by the White House.

Sources: FCC, Aug. 6 · Associated Press, Oct. 6 · Committee to Protect Journalists, Apr. 7

Election integrity issues · remains 100.00%

The existing point was already at the model's ceiling, so it cannot be increased above 100. The update adds evidence rather than inventing a larger number: Reuters reported federal activity seeking election records and a continuing push to expand the federal role; reporting also documented a meeting involving Tina Peters and proposals for federal action on voting machines. In D.C., Guard members were photographed next to a ballot drop box; the Joint Task Force said members are directed not to monitor or secure polling locations, and the Board of Elections asked for limits near drop boxes and voting locations. This record distinguishes proposals, meetings, and an isolated nearby presence from enacted federal control of election administration.

Sources: Reuters, Oct. 2 · Colorado Newsline, Oct. 6 · NBC Washington, Oct. 9 · Reuters, Aug. 31

Trump's Los Angeles / San Diego remarks · no score change

At an October 5 rally, Trump used the phrase “Let them take out Los Angeles. Let them take out San Diego” while discussing the Iran war and fuel prices. FactCheck.org reports that the surrounding remarks and Trump's later statements framed this as an argument about preventing a hypothetical attack, not an order or invitation to attack the cities. The wording and the public reaction are preserved in the evidence record, but it is not used here as proof of an attack order or as an escalation of the genocide-risk chart.

Source: FactCheck.org, updated Oct. 8

Reading This Chart

Each dot is one indicator drawn from four analytical frameworks: Umberto Eco's 14 features of Ur-Fascism, Steven Hassan's BITE model of authoritarian control, Jason Stanley's pillars of fascist politics, and the V-Dem / International IDEA democratic backsliding indices. The X position shows the share of 10,000 simulation iterations in which the indicator registered as observable, given evidence-derived base intensities and Gaussian observation noise. Background bands mark the severity zones. Indicators weighted directly by the WEXMAC TITUS contract and Oneonta, AL jail evidence — Law and Order and Executive Aggrandizement — carry their evidence notes in the hover panel.